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US Global Trade & Top Trading Partners

International Trade Data Analysis—Trends & Indicators
—Year-to-Date—

US International Trade in Good & Services Deficit.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Since hitting the peak in November 2018, U.S. global trade deficit in goods and services has been on the decline.It was when the effects of the United States’ Trade Wars and Tariffs started biting into not only the US trade, but also the Global trade.

With a population of roughly 320 million people, the United States constitutes less than 5 percent of the world’s population, but Americans get the share of more than 20 percent of the world’s total income. Understandably, The United States is the world’s largest national economy and leading global trader.

But, still, once we take into account the facts that roughly three quarters of world purchasing power and over 95% of world consumers are outside the US, the potential economic gains from trade for the United States are quite easy to recognize. Trade is a major component of US economy. Indicators pointing to the trends in global trade need to be observed closely as they directly effect the national economy and GDP. Since the mid 2018, the trade indicators are giving mixed signals.

Since hitting the peak in November 2018, U.S. global trade deficit in goods and services has been on the decline. But, the overall trade volumes have also been on the decline since hitting the top in May 2018—just before steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect that June.

For the year 2019, both the imports and exports were down. Since then, exports have fallen 2.9%. Imports – particularly in the case of goods, also peaked last year. The sum of exports and imports in 2019 was down 5.5% year-over-year.

Exports were down 0.2% from the year 2018, while imports have declined 0.6% over the same period. On the positive side, this narrowing of trade deficit should provide a modest boost to next quarter’s GDP.

These are the indicators of decline in real purchasing power of the consumers in the US. In such an instance, the demand side of the economy is expected to continue its downward trend. The imports-exports data releases by the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) over the period since late 2018 points to such overall across the board decline in trade volume.

US Global Trade in Goods With World, Seasonally Adjusted

[All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis.]

{ Source: US Census }

Month	Exports	Imports	Balance
January 2019	137,553.2	209,471.5	-71,918.3
February 2019	139,028.9	208,905.9	-69,877.0
March 2019	140,563.9	212,368.3	-71,804.4
April 2019	136,077.1	207,008.6	-70,931.5
May 2019	140,234.2	215,035.9	-74,801.7
June 2019	136,449.1	210,625.7	-74,176.6
July 2019	137,670.6	210,052.8	-72,382.2
August 2019	138,125.7	211,148.4	-73,022.6
September 2019	136,155.6	206,811.6	-70,656.0
October 2019	135,552.4	202,245.6	-66,693.1
November 2019	136,571.1	199,558.9	-62,987.8
TOTAL 2019	1,513,982.0	2,293,233.2	-779,251.2

Explanatory Notes on the Trade in Goods:

Exports:

Data on U.S. exports of merchandise from the U.S. to all countries, except Canada, is compiled from the Electronic Export Information (EEI) filed by the USPPI or their agents through the Automated Export System (AES). The EEI is unique among Census Bureau data collection methods since it is not sent to respondents soliciting responses as in the case of surveys. Each EEI represents a shipment of one or more kinds of merchandise from one exporter to one foreign importer on a single carrier.

The United States is substituting Canadian import statistics for U.S. exports to Canada in accordance with a 1987 Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Census Bureau, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Canadian Customs, and Statistics Canada. Similarly, under this Memorandum of Understanding, Canada is substituting U.S. import statistics for Canadian exports to the United States. This data exchange includes only U.S. exports destined for Canada and does not include shipments destined for third countries by routes passing through Canada or shipments of certain grains and oilseeds to Canada for storage prior to exportation to a third country. These shipments are reported on and compiled from EEIs.

Imports:

Published data on U.S. imports of merchandise is compiled primarily from automated data submitted through the U.S. Customs’ Automated Commercial System. Data are also compiled from import entry summary forms, warehouse withdrawal forms and Foreign Trade Zone documents as required by law to be filed with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Data on imports of electricity and natural gas from Canada are obtained from Canadian sources.

[ Source: United States Census Bureau]

US Top Trading Partners

The following tables present Year-to-Date Trade Data for the Top 15 US Trading Partners. These top 15 trading partners contribute almost 75% of the total US trade. Combined with the historical data, it serves to show the trend in the coming months and quarters.

[Data are goods only. In Billions of US Dollars]

{ Source: US Census }

Year-to-Date Total Trade

Rank	Country	Exports	Imports	Total	% of Total Trade
—	Total: All	1,509.9	2,296.0	3,806.0	100.0%
—	Total: of 15	1,065.1	1,800.8	2,865.9	75.3%
1	Mexico	237.3	330.5	567.8	14.9%
2	Canada	270.6	292.4	563.0	14.8%
3	China	97.8	418.6	516.3	13.6%
4	Japan	67.9	132.1	200.0	5.3%
5	Germany	55.5	116.8	172.3	4.5%
6	S. Korea	51.5	70.8	122.	3.2%
7	U K	63.6	57.6	122.3	3.2%
8	France	34.5	53.5	88.0	2.3%
9	India	31.3	53.4	84.7	2.2%
10	Taiwan	28.5	49.4	77.9	2.0%
11	Italy	22.1	52.4	74.5	2.0%
12	Netherlands	46.7	27.4	74.1	1.9%
13	Vietnam	10.0	60.9	70.9	1.9%
14	Brazil	39.5	28.2	67.8	1.8%
15	Ireland	8.3	56.7	65.1	1.7%

Year-to-Date Exports

Rank	Country	Exports	% of Total Exports
—	Total: All Countries	1,509.9	100.0%
—	Total: Top 15 Countries	1,114.3	73.8%
1	Canada	270.6	17.9%
2	Mexico	237.3	15.7%
3	China	97.8	6.5%
4	Japan	67.9	4.5%
5	U K	63.6	4.2%
6	Germany	55.5	3.7%
7	S Korea	51.5	3.4%
8	Netherlands	46.7	3.1%
9	Brazil	39.5	2.6%
10	France	34.5	2.3%
11	Belgium	32.4	2.1%
12	India	31.3	2.1%
13	Singapore	28.8	1.9%
14	Taiwan	28.5	1.9%
15	Hong Kong	28.4	1.9%

Year-to-Date Imports

Rank	Country	Imports	% of Total Imports
—	Total: All COuntries	2,296.0	100.0%
—	Total: Top 15 Countries	1,822.2	79.4%
1	China	418.6	18.2%
2	Mexico	330.5	14.4%
3	Canada	292.4	12.7%
4	Japan	132.1	5.8%
5	Germany	116.8	5.1%
6	S. Korea	70.8	3.1%
7	Vietnam	60.9	2.7%
8	U K	57.6	2.5%
9	Ireland	56.7	2.5%
10	France	53.5	2.3%
11	India	53.4	2.3%
12	Italy	52.4	2.3%
13	Taiwan	49.4	2.2%
14	Switzerland	40.4	1.8%
15	Malaysia	36.7	1.5%

Year-to-Date Surpluses

Rank	Country	Surplus
1	Hong Kong	24.1
2	Netherlands	19.3
3	UAE	14.2
4	Belgium	14.0
5	Australia	11.3
6	Brazil	11.3
7	Panama	6.5
8	U K	6.0
9	Chile	4.9
10	Singapore	4.5
11	Qatar	3.5
12	Peru	3.4
13	Dom. Republic	3.4
14	Argentina	2.9
15	Guatemala	2.6

Year-to-Date Deficits

Rank	Country	Deficit
1	China	-320.8
2	Mexico	-93.2
3	Japan	-64.2
4	Germany	-61.4
5	Vietnam	-50.9
6	Ireland	-48.4
7	Italy	-30.3
8	Malaysia	-24.9
9	Switzerland	-24.2
10	India	-22.0
11	Canada	-21.7
12	Taiwan	-20.9
13	S. Korea	-19.3
14	France	-19.0
15	Thailand	-18.5

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