US Gross Domestic Product —2019-By Quarters

Quarterly Comparison of Economy

Real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019—that was up from the second quarter that was 2.0 percent. In comparison, it was down from 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. release.

The accelaration in the Real GDP growth in the first quarter was reflecting an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment.

These movements were partly offset by decelerations in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and non-residential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports—which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were turned lower.

The slow down of the economy in the Second Quarter was attributed to lower state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment. While the factors that gave the upward push to the economy in the second quarter were the personal consumption expenditures.

The following is the comparative review of the Third and the previous quarters of 2019:

Third Quarter GDP Components and Factors:

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, residential investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment and upturns in exports and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second quarter.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $202.3 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.54 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $241.4 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.

Third Quarter in Comparison to Previous Quarters

In the first quarter of 2019 Current-dollar GDP was increased 3.8 percent, or $197.6 billion, to a level of $21.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter of 2018, current-dollar GDP was increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Personal Income:

Current-dollar personal income increased $147.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $229.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The deceleration reflected downturns in personal interest income, personal dividend income, and proprietors’ income that were partly offset by an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE):

Personal consumption was up 1.2 percent in the first quarter, down from 2.5 percent in the 4th quarter of 2018. The decline was due to a fall in consumption of goods (-0.7 percent vs 2.6 percent in Q4, 2018). Durable goods were declined most (-5.3 percent vs 3.6 percent). Services consumption growth remained strong (2 percent vs 2.4 percent), though.

Disposable Personal Income:

Was up $116.0 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $222.9 billion, or 5.8 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2018. Real disposable personal income was increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Personal Savings:

Was $1.11 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.07 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 7.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Exports:

Exports were 3.7 percent in the second quarter, while imports were down 3.7 percent—it was the largest drop since the Q4 of 2012.

Second Quarter GDP Components and Factors

The Increase in Real GDP:

It reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased.

The Deceleration in Real GDP:

Primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Real gross domestic Income:

(GDI) was up 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, was increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter

Current dollar GDP:

Increased 4.6 percent, or $240.3 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP was up 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion.

The Price Index for GDP:

Showed an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter. The PCE price index was up 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the first quarter.

Source: { Bureau of Economic Analysis—National Economic Accounts }

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